Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 12.033920 14.102965 16.370621 19.033657 22.068245 25.411222 29.365167
2025-01-05 8.780154 11.438622 14.620847 18.683109 23.700449 29.661831 37.245107
2025-01-12 6.927578 9.857171 13.627592 18.775017 25.549171 34.081838 45.551948
2025-01-19 5.624139 8.644750 12.783977 18.766845 27.069116 38.040741 53.464254
2025-01-26 4.979347 8.174606 12.791322 19.788822 29.930360 43.863263 64.163165
2025-02-02 4.416451 7.703898 12.689087 20.575295 32.455463 49.344288 74.730355
2025-02-09 3.988394 7.356202 12.693352 21.468029 35.149952 55.195347 86.159458
2025-02-16 3.446540 6.726263 12.159119 21.439730 36.409070 58.994259 94.813936
2025-02-23 2.888191 5.970622 11.310289 20.787395 36.594388 61.139786 101.079977
2025-03-02 2.402381 5.260355 10.435496 19.971264 36.401131 62.629369 106.365561
2025-03-09 2.115534 4.876907 10.077648 19.981165 37.533703 66.231259 115.100222
2025-03-16 1.882974 4.561407 9.799126 20.088697 38.815734 70.122637 124.482210
2025-03-23 1.664656 4.246048 9.493733 20.136746 40.035464 74.055492 134.288360
2025-03-30 1.399500 3.780601 8.832816 19.442378 39.865142 75.632974 140.292944
2025-04-06 1.237490 3.519629 8.549811 19.442103 40.949724 79.413427 150.207124
2025-04-13 1.094064 3.275301 8.267187 19.405687 41.949535 83.087390 160.118700
2025-04-20 1.048884 3.269015 8.501001 20.449316 45.095594 90.768077 177.418778
2025-04-27 0.989555 3.214920 8.619192 21.256028 47.828131 97.839286 193.977260
2025-05-04 0.941662 3.183045 8.783498 22.173681 50.840824 105.580638 212.100986
2025-05-11 0.841949 2.986142 8.530663 22.144334 51.919221 109.753981 223.925883
2025-05-18 0.720701 2.699708 8.018831 21.473177 51.605764 111.249659 230.867291
2025-05-25 0.608240 2.412989 7.462808 20.633460 50.855032 111.833397 236.097934
2025-06-01 0.546902 2.275447 7.274728 20.643642 51.929031 116.036891 248.365121